Advance bookings for the upcoming summer vacation in Japan have suddenly dropped. A strange and unproven reason is behind this – a prediction in a manga novel. Tourists from various Asian countries, especially from Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong, are canceling their plans to come to Japan one after another. The main reason: a ‘prophetic’ story in a manga novel that has spread on social media.
Where did the prediction come from?
Ryo Tatsuki, the author of a manga comic published in 1999, mentioned in his book that a massive earthquake would hit Japan in July 2025, which would cause a tsunami and devastate the country. Although this story was neglected for a long time, after its re-publication in 2021, a new chapter was added to it and it went viral on social media.
Where is Ryo Tatsuki’s credibility?
Many people claim that Tatsuki predicted the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Although there is no scientific basis for this, this coincidence still scares people.
The impact of viral posts and videos
Recently, there have been many videos and posts on YouTube and Facebook, where the predictions are being spread and people are urging people to refrain from traveling. These videos have received more than a million views and many people have commented and expressed their fears and worries. As a result, tourists are being put off by the wavering of faith and disbelief.
A noticeable collapse in the tourism sector
According to data from the analysis firm ForwardKeys, bookings for trips to Japan from Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong have fallen dramatically since April.
- According to the report, average bookings from Hong Kong have decreased by 50%.
- Weekly bookings from Hong Kong have fallen by 83% between the end of June and the first week of July.
Airlines’ response
In the current situation, both Greater Bay Airlines and Hong Kong Airlines have reduced their flights to Japan in May compared to previous months. This is a major blow to the tourism industry.
Government response
Miyagi Prefecture Governor Yoshihiro Murai publicly stated in April, “These kinds of rumors are having a negative impact on the tourism sector. People should not believe them.”
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) also states on its website that current scientific technology cannot yet accurately predict the timing of earthquakes.
Japan’s location in the ‘Ring of Fire’
Japan is one of the earthquake-prone countries around the Pacific Ocean, known as the Ring of Fire. 90% of the world’s earthquakes occur here. Japan, due to its geological structure, often experiences small and large earthquakes.
The 9.0 magnitude Tohoku earthquake that struck Japan in 2011, followed by the tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear disaster, still haunt people. The fear of a repeat of such a horrific event can easily create panic among the general public.
Rumors vs. Reality
On the one hand, rumors are being spread based on stories, while on the other hand, science says that it is still impossible to predict earthquakes. Caught between these two contradictory pieces of information, the common people are helpless.
What experts say
Earthquake analysts say, “No scientist in the world can yet say exactly when and where an earthquake will occur. Only earthquake-prone areas can be identified, but it is not possible to say a specific day or date.”
What is the future of Japan’s tourism industry and what should be done?
The tourism industry has not yet fully returned to its pre-Covid 2019 level. Such rumors have scared tourists from Asian countries. As a result, hotels, restaurants, travel agencies and local businesses in Japan are facing losses.
What should be done in the future?
- Government initiatives need to increase awareness so that people do not take rumors as information.
- Strict measures should be taken to stop the spread of fake news on social media.
- To restore the confidence of tourists, travel safety information needs to be disclosed more transparently.
What travelers should do
Those planning to travel to Japan should—
- Check earthquake and weather information on government websites.
- Do not make decisions based on rumors spread on social media.
- If you are confident, proceed as planned.
